Impacts of short-term interest rates on stock returns and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from EAGLE countries

In this study, we estimate Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) and time-varying structural VAR (TVP-VAR) models for Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey to analyze the impacts of short-term interest rates on stock prices and exchange rates considering the relationships between these variables. BVAR and TVP-VAR models’ estimations indicate that monetary policy decisions of these countries lead to capital movements as well as capital movements may create a considerable amount of variation in exchange and stock markets both in the periods of economic stability and financial crisis. We also reveal that increases in interest rates intending to prevent capital outflows may lead to decrease in stock returns, which in turn may deteriorate the real economic activity in Indonesia, while changes in short-term interest rates in Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey cannot be used as a tool to stabilize the value of their home currencies against the USD. Our study highlights the importance of formulating an optimal monetary policy framework accompanied by macro-prudential polices, which help to reach inflation target and smooth the possible variations in exchange rates and stock prices during economic crisis conditions in Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey.     

Do sovereign rating announcements affect emerging market exchange rate correlations? A multivariate DCC-GARCH approach

This article investigates the effects of sovereign credit rating announcements on time-varying exchange rate return correlations for a sample of 11 emerging market countries over the period 2002–2015. The data set covers daily exchange rates and long-term foreign currency sovereign ratings, outlooks and watch list. The pairwise time-varying correlations are derived by corrected Dynamic Conditional Correlation (cDCC) modelling which is a member of multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models family. Furthermore, to capture the global factor effect, a dynamic-weighted index is created by using dynamic principal component (DPC) analysis. Findings suggest that some of the emerging market exchange rate co-movements are affected by rating announcements. Upgrades of Moody’s and downgrades of Fitch lead to spillovers. Main source of these spillovers are sovereign credit rating changes of European countries, especially Czech Republic and Turkey. Countries with high amount of external debt, large current account deficit and speculative grade are more prone to be influenced by announcements on a foreign country’s long-term sovereign rating.     

Central banks and macroeconomic policy choices: Relaxing the trilemma

Macroeconomic policy choices in open economies are constrained by the trilemma according to which the objectives of exchange rate stability, monetary independence and capital mobility cannot be attained jointly. This paper shows that foreign exchange interventions provide an effective instrument to relax the trilemma. An active reserve policy allows central banks to pursue independent monetary and exchange rate policies when the capital account is liberalised.We use the framework of the portfolio balance model to show that exchange market interventions may substitute for capital controls. Both allow a country to achieve the other two objectives of the trilemma. Our empirical analysis of a large country panel data set covering the period 1970–2010 confirms this theoretical insight: the weighted sum of the three trilemma objectives increases in the degree of foreign exchange market intervention. The capacity to relax the trilemma constraint has increased over time and has been most effective in emerging markets.     

Exchange rate effect on carbon credit price via energy markets

This paper examines the impact of currency exchange rates on the carbon market. We scrutinize this effect through the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), which primarily uses two substitutable fossil energy inputs for the generation of electricity: coal and natural gas. The European coal market is directly driven by global coal markets that are denominated in USD, whereas, natural gas is mainly imported from Russia and is denominated in Euros. The impulse response functions of a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model demonstrate that a shock in the Euro/USD exchange rate can be transmitted through the channel of energy substitution between coal and natural gas, and influence on the carbon credit market.     

Exchange rate,marginal q and investment behaviour of small and medium-sized enterprises in Japan: time series evidence of manufacturing industries

In this article, we investigate Granger’s causality among the exchange rate, Tobin’s marginal q and investment-capital ratio with quarterly data on firms categorized as small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Japan. We utilize the data of the following industries: chemical, iron and steel, production machinery, electric machinery and equipment, automobile and accessories and all manufacturing. The empirical results we obtain show that the null hypotheses of no Granger’s causality from the exchange rate to other variables, investment and marginal q, are accepted in all industries. The reason is the lower percentage of export by SMEs. Thus, it is considered that the effects of Abenomics on SMEs are limited, and that other kinds of reflation measures for SMEs are needed.     

Combinatorial clock-proxy exchange for carrier collaboration in less than truck load transportation

A carrier collaboration problem in less-than-truck load transportation is considered, where multiple carriers exchange their pickup and delivery requests in order to improve their operational efficiency. We extend the clock-proxy auction proposed by Ausubel et al. (2006) to a combinatorial clock-proxy exchange for the problem. This mechanism combines the price discovery of the clock exchange designed based on Lagrangian relaxation with the efficiency of the proxy exchange determined based on the information observed in the clock phase. Numerical experiments on randomly generated instances demonstrate the necessity of the proxy phase and the effectiveness of the clock-proxy exchange.     

Ethical leadership and its impact on service innovative behavior: The role of LMX and job autonomy

This study examined the effect of ethical leadership on service innovative behavior of employees at small and medium sized tourist hotels in Uttarakhand, India. It has forwarded an integrated model that highlights the relationship between ethical leadership and employees' service innovative behavior while interacting through leader-member exchange and job autonomy. Using a sample of 468 customer contact employees and their 117 supervisors, hierarchical regression was conducted to establish the relationship. Findings of the study revealed that ethical leadership promoted service innovative behavior of the hotel employees mediated through leader-member exchanges. Further, it was also found that the level of service innovative behavior was commensurate to the perception of employee job autonomy. Based on the study findings, implications for theory and practice are discussed.     

Linking customer-employee exchange and employee innovative behavior

Employee innovative behaviors lay the foundation for organizational innovation and are of importance to business success, especially for service firms. Although these innovative behaviors are performed at the individual level, employees still need to have frequent exchanges with others, such as customers. As there is little research investigating customer-employee exchange (CEX) and its influence on employee innovative behavior in services, this study aims to fill this gap in a hotel context. The results of a survey with 180 respondents indicate that both the solidarity and harmonization components of CEX have positive effects on employee innovative behavior, yet the information exchange between customers and employees does not significantly influence employee innovation. Also, higher level of CEX leads to higher level of perceived social psychological climate for innovation. The mediating effect of social psychological climate in the relationship between CEX and employee innovative behavior is partially supported. The findings contribute to the understanding of the role of social exchanges in facilitating employee innovative behavior and provide implications for the management of employee innovative behavior in hospitality firms.     

Et tu,Brute? How unfair!

Marketing literature has consistently suggested that retailers should invest in building trust, as customers’ trust in the retailer results in a number of benefits for the retailer. The objective of this article is to understand the impact of buyers’ prior trust in retailers on their price unfairness perceptions. To investigate this, we conduct three experiments; the findings of the first experiment suggest that buyers’ prior trust in retailer has a dual impact (forgiveness and betrayal) on their perception of price unfairness. Trust helps to reduce price unfairness perceptions when the magnitude of the price increase is small, but accentuates this when the price increase is large. Moreover, forgiveness acts as a mediator between price increase and perceived price unfairness. This mediation effect of forgiveness depends upon a shopper's prior trust in the store. The second experiment replicates these findings in a real life experimental setting and thus establishes the robustness of the findings in real life contexts. The third experiment extends the boundaries of this research by demonstrating that the effect of trust on price unfairness perception depends on the nature of comparisons, i.e., whether the price comparison is made with one's own past price or with a price paid by someone else.     

基于不同时期典型案例比较分析的货物贸易外汇业务违规趋势及建议

在不同外汇管理时期，货物贸易违规业务呈现多样化的特点。本文通过对四个外汇管理时期的典型案例比较，总结出贸易项下违规业务的动机、专业化水平和规避监管手段的变化趋势，揭示当前形势下货物贸易外汇监管难点，并提出针对性建议。